Government demographic forecasts continue to assume they will stabilise which is important because pupil forecasts underpin decisions about when and where new schools are needed. However, if those projections are too high, local authorities risk planning – and seeking developer contributions for – school places that may not be required.
The number of children born each year in the UK fluctuates – but for more than a decade birth rates have been falling.
This risks adding unnecessary costs to housing development, resulting in housing being more expensive and unaffordable, and making it more difficult for the government to achieve its housing growth targets.
The impact of social and economic shifts on parenthood
The UK’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen steadily. In 2010, women in England and Wales had an average of 1.9 children. By 2024 this had dropped to around 1.4 – the lowest level on record.
This reflects long-running social and economic shifts, including delayed parenthood, longer participation in education, affordability pressures and wider financial uncertainty. In 2024 the average age of mothers and fathers reached 31 and 34, respectively, continuing the trend towards later family formation.
Why this matters for UK school place planning
Birth numbers today shape school rolls for the next 15 years. The number of children in reception classes depends on births four to five years earlier, and secondary school numbers depend on births roughly a decade earlier. Any miss-estimate of future births therefore has a long shadow across the education system.
National pupil forecasts produced by the Department for Education are based on current Office for National Statistics assumptions which assume that the birth rate will stabilise. This is despite past forecasts consistently proving too optimistic.
On this basis the number of children aged 0–15 in the UK is projected to fall by around 797,000 (6.4%) by mid-2032, from 12.4 million to 11.6 million, before remaining broadly flat to 2047.
However, if the decline continues, as seen in many comparable countries, the number of children could fall further and faster than these projections suggest. Demand for school places would then be lower than currently planned, with implications for how education infrastructure is delivered alongside new housing.
Education contributions for developers
Pupil forecasts play a key role in negotiating education contributions from housing developers. However, where pupil projections prove too optimistic there is a risk that contributions are being set above future need.
This matters in the context of the UK’s housing crisis. Education infrastructure costs can affect scheme viability and slow the delivery of new homes.
As the UK grapples with falling birth rates and the need to accelerate housing delivery it will become increasingly important to ensure projections reflect long-term demographic patterns. This will help keep school place planning proportionate and avoid unnecessary pressure on housing delivery.
The future is uncertain though. Birth rates could go down, stabilise, or go up. So it is important that school place planning takes a flexible approach. This means not requiring significant contributions or new infrastructure up front from developers and their development proposals but rather having regular reviews to re-assess whether infrastructure and payments are justified. We also think it is important that local education authorities are more transparent about the assumptions behind their demographic forecasts and proposed education contributions. This should encourage a more open and collaborative approach to assessing local need.
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